US Oil Production to Hit New Record in 2018


"We expect an increase in global demand in 2018 by 1.5-1.6 million barrels a day, which exceeds our expectations", he said, indicating that an increased demand can allow the market to absorb all production, either from conventional or unconventional sources such as shale oil".

CNBC reported that big investment banks such as Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley are raising their crude price targets as Brent crude rose to $70.37 on Monday, while reached $64.9 on Tuesday, both hitting more than three-year highs.

An oversupplied market pushed crude oil prices below $30 per barrel in early 2016, though an effort to balance the market by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with coordinated production cuts has set something of a floor under the price of oil. The IEA thinks USA shale oil output may soon surge on the back of higher prices.

But the higher prices also brought back USA producers, particularly in shale oil, which requires higher prices in order to break even.

Analysts have predicted the USA will soon take the lead in global crude production, but Friday was the first time the Paris-based agency put its weight behind the claim. Distillates - used to make diesel and heating oils - fell by 3.9 million barrels.

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The global oil glut is shrinking and the monetary tightening expected in 2018 isn't likely to have a considerable impact on the oil market, particularly in an environment of improving economic growth, OPEC said Thursday.

"Solid refinery activity has been one component behind the ongoing streak of crude draws, which in turn have helped keep alive an oil rally that has lifted prices to their highest levels since December 2014", S&P Global Platts Oil Futures Editor Geoffrey Craig said in the emailed report.

Latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts 2018 could be "record-setting" for the United States as it looks set to dominate the global market.

Based on our estimates, we expect Brent oil prices to average at around $65 per barrel in 2018 and gradually increase to $90 per barrel by 2024.

Most analysts expect US output to break through 10 million barrels per day soon. The high volatility of oil and the ruble, along with introducing higher taxes on the producers, are seen as another risk for the Russian energy sector, Citigroup said. The strength of US shale is one of the main pressure factors on the fuel market, but it remains to be seen if shale drillers can achieve such high production levels. This, combined with healthy oil demand, has pushed up crude by nearly 15 percent since early December.