What's next for the oil price rally — Business Extra Podcast


OPEC and its partners chose to extend its production cuts till the end of 2018 in Vienna on November 30, as the oil cartel and its allies step up their attempt to end a three-year supply glut that has savaged crude prices and the global energy industry.

Before we get to the broader causes, let's take a look at the key headlines dominating world news that have impacted crude prices in the recent past-along with the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) inventory data, which was announced on April 4-beginning with the widely criticized decision by the Trump Administration to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

NAIJ.com earlier reported that the U.S. and other nations will abandon Nigeria's oil. The United States, however, skipped levying tariffs against Canada, the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., and Mexico. The authority added that in the same week crude oil inventories had increased by 2.2 million barrels, which went counter to analyst expectations of a draw or a much smaller build.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), meanwhile, said this week that USA crude stocks rose last week as refineries cut output while gasoline stocks increased and distillate inventories fell. The price of oil has risen by about 6 percent in the past month thanks to expectations that the United States could do so.

Near-term supports for WTI crude are placed at $61 per barrel, a close below which crude prices should drop to $58 per barrel, the bottom of the medium-term bearish channel, where prices are likely to find a bottom.

Crude oil futures are trading lower early Friday.

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At 0754 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $67.93, down $0.25 or -0.37% and June Brent crude oil is at $74.60, down $0.14 or -0.19%.

By end-April, China will likely have taken in more than 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude - its most ever and almost 10 percent of global consumption.

While acknowledging that oil prices are buoyant and earnings appear to be looking up for producers, Della Vigna told CNBC that "Oil is going through a complete transformation, we think it's entering a whole new phase in the investment mega-cycle what we call the "age of restraint" as opposed to the "age of expansion" that we've seen in the first decade of the 2000s".

Crude oil is in a long-term bullish trend, no doubt about it.

Ehsan Khoman, head of research for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at MUFG bank, the largest bank in Japan believes the oil market is underestimating the impact the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal.